New NATO member Sweden is boosting support to Ukraine, with a letter of intent signed this week on the sale of up to 150 Gripen fighter jets. Shortly after joining NATO in March 2024 and bringing an end to two centuries of military non-alignment, Sweden approved a €989 million military support package that included Archer self-propelled artillery systems and long-range drones.
Its latest contribution to the war effort is Glimt, an innovative project launched by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) earlier this year. Glimt is an open platform that relies on the theory of “crowd forecasting”: a method of making predictions based on surveying a large and diverse group of people and taking an average. “Glimt” is a Swedish word for “a glimpse” or “a sudden insight”. The theory posits that the average of all collected predictions produces correct results with “uncanny accuracy”, according to the Glimt website. Such “collective intelligence” is used today for everything from election results to extreme weather events, Glimt said.
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Group forecasting allows for a broad collection of information while avoiding the cognitive bias that often characterises intelligence services. Each forecaster collects and analyses the available information differently to reach the most probable scenario and can add a short comment to explain their reasoning. The platform also encourages discussion between members so they can compare arguments and alter their positions.
Available in Swedish, French and English, the platform currently has 20,000 registered users; each question attracts an average of 500 forecasters. Their predictions are later sent to statistical algorithms that cross-reference data, particularly the relevance of the answers they provided. The most reliable users will have a stronger influence on the results; this reinforces the reliability of collective intelligence.
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Source: Sweden’s crowd-forecasting platform ‘Glimt’ helps Ukraine make wartime predictions
This may work, until the bots and village idiots find it.
Robin Edgar
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