Researchers at Trinity College Dublin have uncovered what they call a “universal thermal performance curve” (UTPC), a pattern that appears to apply to every living species on Earth. This curve describes how organisms respond to changes in temperature, and it seems to hold true across the entire spectrum of life. According to the scientists, the UTPC effectively “shackles evolution” because no species appears capable of escaping its influence on how temperature affects biological performance.
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Rising Heat and Falling Performance
The study revealed a consistent trend in how organisms respond to warmth:
- Performance increases gradually as temperature rises until reaching a peak (the optimum point).
- Beyond this optimum, performance drops sharply.
- When temperatures climb too high, overheating can cause physiological breakdown or death.
These findings, published in the journal PNAS, suggest that species may face greater limits than previously thought when adapting to global climate change. As most regions continue to warm, the window of viable performance for many species could shrink.
One Curve, Many Temperatures
Andrew Jackson, Professor in Zoology in Trinity’s School of Natural Sciences, and co-author,said: “Across thousands of species and almost all groups of life including bacteria, plants, reptiles, fish and insects, the shape of the curve that describes how performance changes with temperature is very similar. However, different species have very different optimal temperatures, ranging from 5oC to 100oC, and their performance can vary a lot depending on the measure of performance being observed and the species in question.”
“That has led to countless variations on models being proposed to explain these differences. What we have shown here is that all the different curves are in fact the same exact curve, just stretched and shifted over different temperatures. And what’s more, we have shown that the optimal temperature and the critical maximum temperature at which death occurs are inextricably linked.”
“Whatever the species, it simply must have a smaller temperature range at which life is viable once temperatures shift above the optimum.”
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Searching for the Exceptions
“The next step is to use this model as something of a benchmark to see if there are any species or systems we can find that may, subtly, break away from this pattern. If we find any, we will be excited to ask why and how they do it — especially given forecasts of how our climate is likely to keep warming in the next decades.”
Story Source:
Materials provided by Trinity College Dublin. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Journal Reference:
- Jean-François Arnoldi, Andrew L. Jackson, Ignacio Peralta-Maraver, Nicholas L. Payne. A universal thermal performance curve arises in biology and ecology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2025; 122 (43) DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2513099122
Source: A hidden temperature law governs all life on Earth | ScienceDaily
So I have no access to the article but would love to see the curve for humanity!
Robin Edgar
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